PharmaDB
Use case · Portfolio & Sourcing Strategy · Origin-Country Shift Forecasting v.04.2026 · refreshed monthly
Use cases Portfolio & Sourcing Strategy Origin-Country Shift Forecasting
Portfolio & Sourcing Strategy Buyer view Molecule · apixaban Data · trade flowsData · molecule country flow view Live

Origin-Country Shift Forecasting

Track how API export origins are gaining or losing share. India grew 31.7% from 2022 to 2024; minor origins are halving. Quantify your geographic exposure.

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Example output · global API export origins · 2022 to 2024 declared trade value shift
+31.7% · India origin two-year growth, 2022 to 2024 declared export value
n=$8.29B 2024 observable export value, 4 origin countries Indicative

India's share of observable API export origin moved from 97.9% in 2022 to 98.7% in 2024, on $6.21B growing to $8.19B. Turkey, the second origin, fell from $108M to $53M over the same window. Origin diversification is not happening in the trade record; if anything, the system is consolidating further toward India.

202220242025
India share 2024
98.7%
$8.19B
Turkey share 2024
0.64%
$53M, down 51%
India two-year value growth
+31.7%
$6.21B → $8.19B
(Mol, importer) pairs with multi-origin
121
of 8,084 in 2024
30 seconds

How it works

molecule losartan origin IN destination BR
01

Pick the scope.

All molecules, a class, or a portfolio. Default is the full observable export universe; portfolio-scoped runs return the same shape for your specific basket.

0 HHI 0.42 1
computed · pre-joined · anonymised
02

The AI agent computes shifts.

Two-year USD growth per origin country. Share of global trade, year-on-year delta, and the implied diversification signal computed at the warehouse layer.

brief · cited
Lane concentration · structurally concentrated
HHI0.42
Top-3 share71%
Actionqualify second source
03

Save the diversification brief.

Citation-anchored brief with the gainers, the decliners, and a recommended action for any portfolio molecule whose origin set just narrowed.

Why a strategy lead runs it

Geographic concentration, quantified.

Direction, not just level.

India's share is 98.7% of observable trade. The question is whether that share is rising, flat, or falling. The shift number answers it.

Diversification trigger.

An origin set narrowing across multiple portfolio molecules signals concentration deepening. The AI agent flags the molecules and recommends the alternate-origin workflow.

Lane-shift cross-reference.

If origin concentration deepens at the country level and lane concentration deepens at the lane level, the entire supply chain is consolidating. Different combinations imply different procurement plays.

Two-year lookback.

Two years dampens single-year tender shocks. The cleaner the time window, the more reliable the directional read.

What a real chat looks like

Type a portfolio. The AI agent returns the origin map.

A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.

Origin shift · global API exports
chat · saved 2 min ago
You
Show me how export origin countries shifted from 2022 to 2024 for the global API market. Surface gainers, decliners, and what each shift means for our portfolio.
F
Running tool pharmagraph_query
molecule_country_flow · 2022 vs 2024 · grouped by export_country
F
Indian-origin trade grew 31.7% in USD terms from 2022 to 2024, from $6.2B to $8.2B. Turkey halved (-50.4%) and Mexico contracted 43.6%. Indonesia and Costa Rica appeared as new origin entrants in 2024, both still under $30M. The observable export universe is consolidating onto India, which deepens single-country exposure for any portfolio with significant Indian-origin sourcing. Apixaban is a clear case: 100% of observable 2024 trade flows from India. The diversification play is qualifying a non-Indian DMF source before the concentration locks further.
India
+31.7%
Turkey
-50.4%
Mexico
-43.6%
New entrants
ID, CR
Cited molecule_country_flow 2022, 2024 countries currency + region
Ask a follow-up... ⌘ ↵
Time-to-answer

Manual workflow vs. PharmaDB.

Manual workflow
Excel · email · syndicated reports
  1. 01 Pull two years of origin-level exports 1 day
  2. 02 Aggregate USD by origin country 4 hr
  3. 03 Compute YoY shifts and shares 4-6 hr
  4. 04 Cross-reference portfolio coverage 1 day
  5. 05 Build the diversification brief 4 hr
Total cycle time 2-3 days per refresh
PharmaDB
The AI agent · one query · cited
One query.
Pre-joined warehouse. Origin aggregation and two-year shifts are computed at the schema layer and refresh monthly. The AI agent returns the gainers, decliners, and portfolio implications in chat.
Total cycle time Under a minute
Run across the blockbuster pool

Apixaban-class origin concentration.

Twelve pool molecules with at least $5M lane value · share of trade originating in India · 0 to 1 scale · 2024 declared trade.

Apixaban → BR
100% IN-origin
1.00
Apixaban → CA
100% IN-origin
1.00
Sitagliptin → US
100% IN-origin
1.00
Telmisartan → DE
100% IN-origin
1.00
Empagliflozin → EG
100% IN-origin
1.00
Sacubitril → AE
100% IN-origin
1.00
Linagliptin → SA
100% IN-origin
1.00
Telmisartan → US
100% IN-origin
1.00
Vortioxetine → BR
100% IN-origin
1.00
Vildagliptin → IQ
100% IN-origin
1.00
Valsartan → IQ
100% IN-origin
1.00
Tofacitinib → KE
100% IN-origin
1.00
Competitive Monitored Concentrated Near-monopoly

The origin-shift view is the geographic concentration directional signal. PharmaDB compares two-year origin-country trade shares and surfaces the gainers, decliners, and new entrants. The view is molecule_country_flow; the join is to countries for currency and region context.

FAQ

Frequently asked

Why is the origin set so India-heavy?+

The observable global trade data is dominated by Indian trade declarations, and India is the structural majority origin for global API supply. The asymmetry is real, not an artefact. The page exposes the share and its direction across years.

What counts as a meaningful shift?+

A 10%-plus change in share over two years for an origin contributing more than 1% of global trade. Smaller-origin movers are surfaced separately as new entrants or exits.

How does this connect to the dual-source workflow?+

If origin concentration deepens at the country level on a lane that is already concentrated, the dual-source workflow upgrades from optional to urgent. The AI agent raises the priority automatically when both signals align.

Does the analysis cover non-API trade?+

Yes. Same methodology applies to FDF and intermediates. The shape of the result is the same; the absolute USD levels are different because FDF trade is differently structured.

How fresh is the data?+

Trade aggregates refresh monthly. Origin shifts recompute on every refresh. The catalog row carries the last-computed timestamp surfaced on every result page.

Can the analysis run on a specific molecule?+

Yes. Pass a molecule name and the AI agent returns the origin set just for that molecule. Apixaban is the page's hero example because it sits at 100% India-origin across every observable destination in 2024.

Run your question.

Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.

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