Surface the current US price and API cost for molecules approaching loss of exclusivity. The empirical entry-economics view for generic-launch timing.
Apixaban API clears at $2,000/kg median across 30 suppliers and 94 trimmed shipments. The 5mg / 30-tab FDF pack clears at $4.27 median. Compute entry economics: 5mg x 30 = 150mg API per pack, or $0.30 embedded API cost at median. That leaves $3.97 of conversion margin per pack to absorb manufacturing, regulatory, and channel margin. The post-LOE math works comfortably; apixaban is in the generic-ready band with multi-supplier API competition and a wide entry margin. By contrast, lenalidomide on its 2028 LOE window sits at $19,485/kg API against $19.87 FDF: the entry math does not work without scale.
The AI agent pulls the patent expiry calendar and joins to the current API median and the FDF pack medians for the lifecycle view.
Embedded API cost per pack, FDF median, current US price, and the projected post-LOE pricing equilibrium based on typical erosion bands.
Citation-anchored brief: the current pricing window, the API cost floor, the conversion margin, and the recommended filing-window posture.
The current API price tells the user what the entry cost will look like. Wide API supplier counts (apixaban's 30) signal that the cost will keep falling as generics scale; tight counts (lenalidomide's 12, with several intra-group) signal cost will hold.
Current FDF pricing under exclusivity is the ceiling. Post-LOE erosion typically lands at 30-60% of the exclusivity price. The brief surfaces the projected band so the user can model NPV against.
Recommended posture based on entry economics. ANDA-now if conversion margin holds at projected post-LOE price. Defer if API cost is too high. Para-IV-protect if first-filer exclusivity is available.
Patent expiry catalog refreshes monthly, API and FDF aggregates weekly. The entry brief reruns on every refresh; the brief carries the exact computation timestamp.
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pharmagraph_query Twelve molecules · 2024 API median · FDF pack median · LOE-window candidates and adjacent.
Lifecycle pricing is the entry-economics lens for the LOE window. PharmaDB joins the patent calendar to API and FDF aggregates, computes the conversion margin, and returns the entry posture. Refresh cadence is weekly on the pricing data and monthly on the patent calendar.
The 36-month band from patent expiry. Molecules in the LOE window are candidates for generic filing; molecules within 12 months are candidates for first-filer Para IV strategy. Molecules past LOE are mature generics where pricing is determined by competition.
FDF median pack price minus embedded API cost. The embedded API cost is API USD/kg times the active-ingredient mass per pack. The residual is the entry margin available to cover manufacturing, regulatory, and channel margin.
Apixaban API has 30 active suppliers driving the API floor down to $2,000/kg; the 5mg pack embeds only $0.30 of API. Lenalidomide API has 12 active suppliers and a tight floor at $19,485/kg, embedding $4.87 in the 25mg pack. The entry margin is razor-thin even at the current exclusivity-era FDF price.
Typical generic erosion runs 30-60% of the exclusivity price within 2 years of first-generic launch, deepening to 70-90% over 4-5 years. The brief uses a 50% mid-point for the projected post-LOE price; the user can override with a custom assumption.
Indirectly. The entry economics tell the user whether the molecule is worth filing for at all. The Para IV strategy itself requires a separate analysis of patent claim challenges and first-filer landscape; the brief flags Para-IV-eligible windows.
Patent calendar refreshes monthly; API and FDF aggregates refresh weekly. The entry brief reruns on every refresh; the catalog row carries the exact timestamp.
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