Repricing alerts are the price-event feed. PharmaDB pulls monthly trade value from molecule_seasonality, computes MoM deltas per molecule, and surfaces spike months as candidate price events. Refresh cadence is weekly.
Surface molecules with sharp month-on-month trade value spikes. The leading indicator of a price event before it shows up on a monthly aggregate.
Olaparib has cleared 11 distinct months of 100%+ month-on-month trade value spikes across 2024 and 2025. November 2025 booked $835k, the largest single month in the series. December 2024 was $749k; October 2024 was $694k. The pattern: episodic large clearances against a baseline of $20-50k months. Read this as the API entering a structural repricing window driven by limited supply, intermittent stocking by formulators, and a small active exporter set (5 suppliers in 2024). Each spike is a candidate price event; the brief surfaces the per-shipment value and the exporter count to read whether the spike is volume-driven or price-driven.
Single molecule or full active-list sweep. Default window is the trailing 24 months.
Each month where trade value rose or fell more than 200% versus the prior month. Reverse-chronological. Per-shipment value is computed alongside to distinguish price-driven from volume-driven spikes.
Citation-anchored brief: the spike calendar, the implied per-shipment economics, the supplier count signal, and a recommended posture on whether the spike is a structural repricing trigger or a one-off stocking event.
Annual price aggregates miss the within-year spikes. The monthly seasonality table catches each event as it clears, surfacing the price-event candidate before the year-end median is fixed.
Per-shipment USD is computed alongside the value spike. A spike with rising per-shipment value is a price event; a spike with flat per-shipment value is a volume event. The brief reads which is which.
Spike interpretation depends on supplier count. A spike on a molecule with 5 suppliers signals genuine supply tightness; a spike on a molecule with 30 suppliers is more likely a stocking event.
Monthly seasonality aggregates refresh weekly. The alert feed reruns on every refresh; the brief carries the exact computation timestamp.
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pharmagraph_query Ten molecule-month spike events · 2024-2025 · MoM percentage on the value axis · supplier count and recent observations as context.
Repricing alerts are the price-event feed. PharmaDB pulls monthly trade value from molecule_seasonality, computes MoM deltas per molecule, and surfaces spike months as candidate price events. Refresh cadence is weekly.
Pharma supply chains run on stocking cycles. Annual aggregates smooth over the within-year volatility. Monthly seasonality catches the stocking event, the supply tightness event, and the price spike before they get averaged out.
Default is 200% MoM value change, with at least 10 shipments in the spike month. Configurable: lower thresholds (100%) catch more events; higher (500%) only catch structural events.
Per-shipment USD is computed (value / shipment count). A spike where per-shipment USD rises with value is a price event. A spike where per-shipment USD stays flat while value rises is a volume event. The brief reads which it is.
Molecules with under 10 active suppliers carry more weight in spike interpretation; the supply is structurally limited, so volume spikes typically come with price spikes. Molecules with 30+ suppliers are commodity-like; spikes there are more often stocking events.
Persistent spike pattern with rising per-shipment value: structural repricing window, plan for higher API costs. One-off spike with flat per-shipment value: stocking event, no posture change needed. Spike then collapse: price discovery event, await stabilisation.
Monthly seasonality refreshes weekly. The alert feed reruns on every refresh; the catalog row carries the exact timestamp.
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